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The Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals, with Game 1 taking place on Tuesday, May 21. Keep reading below for three key stats and areas that will be battlegrounds for the series.
Indiana's Shot Quality
The Pacers finished the regular season with the second-best offensive rating, and they have somehow improved upon that mark this postseason by scoring 121.7 points per 100 possessions. Shooting variance has helped, but elite shot quality is the driving force behind their success.
Through 13 games, 57% of Indiana’s field goal attempts are either wide open 3s or restricted area shots. For context, the gap between them and second best (52%) is roughly equal to the gap between second and 10th. When a team consistently generates high-value shots, it reduces the likelihood of cold streaks. Plus, excellent shot quality also makes it more probable that a team gets scorching hot for an entire game, which increases upset chances.
Can Boston’s disruptive defense force tough shots? Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are ideal point-of-attack defenders to throw at Tyrese Haliburton, and the Celtics possess the wings to mark Pascal Siakam. Their rim protection has been shaky at times though with Al Horford starting, so now is the time for Indiana to strike before Kristaps Porziņgis returns.
Transition Battle
Transition offense has also been a major factor behind Indiana’s success. Entering the playoffs, about 20% of their possessions were in transition – the third-best mark. They have slightly declined to 18.4% this postseason, but their efficiency has spiked to an absurd 1.32 points per transition possession.
Boston boasted the top regular season transition defense in terms of points allowed per possession. The Celtics have struggled to maintain their success with Porziņgis out, but they are still holding opponents to a mere 12.5% transition frequency. Not only can Boston neutralize fast-break opportunities from a defensive personnel perspective, but their elite offense scoring at a high rate also stops dangerous outlet passes.
For this series to extend past expectations, Indiana has to win the transition battle and maintain its fast-break efficiency. Otherwise, the Celtics could grind the Pacers down in the half-court.
Boston's Offensive Mentality
An overreliance on jump shots has been a fatal flaw for Boston in recent years, and it could burn them again. Indiana’s defense is far from stout, but they are effective at running shooters off the arc and nullifying wide open 3s.
That said, the Pacers struggle mightily to protect the rim and do not generate many turnovers on opponents' drives. Will the Celtics exploit that and aggressively slash instead of settling for contested jumpers? They have the tools to execute that game plan with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but that duo has never embraced that style or mentality to their potential.
That’s why a healthy Porziņgis is crucial to Boston reaching its offensive ceiling. Of the 36 players with at least 100 post-up possessions, Porziņgis's 1.3 points per possession on post-ups easily led the field. He adds another dimension to the offense inside the arc, which would be huge against Indiana’s defense.
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